Otim Odoch: The 2026 election is for Museveni—more important than any other

Less than 13 months remain until Ugandans fulfill their constitutional obligation to decide how, by whom, and on what basis they wish to be governed.

In 2026, unlike any other election year, Ugandans will decide whether to give the old man with a hat his retirement package and his final term in State House, or not!

But what does the political atmosphere really look like?

Political heat is clearly forming, with various groups (political parties) pushing and shoving, similar to how natural selection works in the animal kingdom.

The once-famous opposition party, the FDC, appeared to have split into two parties: the Najjanankumbi side (FDC under Patrick Oboi Amuriat and Nandala Mafabi) and the Katonga Brigade led by the usual suspect, Dr. Kizza Besigye.

As the country thought it would end with the blue camp, the Red (NUP) camp unexpectedly split, with Buganda region vice president Mathias Mpuga jumping ship in an attempt to antagonize his former principal, Robert Kyagulanyi.

The UPC appears to be recouping, as it appears to be content with its victory in the mid North (Lango sub-region), where it was granted two by elections and won, an act that appears to have increased their appetite for the big kill. But, they got the best beating of life in Kisoro byelection where it scored a paltry 300 votes, a testimony that their dream for State House in 2026 is far fetched.

In the midst of this, there is the King of the Political Jungle, the NRM party, which has ruled Uganda longer than any other government since independence.

So, what is the political situation in the country?

If recent developments are what to go by, it is clear that the NRM party is set and ready to front its best striker, H.E Museveni for yet another tussle with his grandchildren, the Bazzukulu as fondly referred to by him.

In his characteristic mode, H.E Museveni seems more ready for the upcoming election, more than any other time.

Interestingly, he has already crisscrossed the country three times and is still going strong, with one message: “Wealth to the last man” via his newfound magic, the PDM.

Many believe President Museveni is taking a populist stance, but politically, the NRM is done in 2026.

The President’s political strength is firmly anchored in the Central region by his other offshoot office, the ONC, led by the indomitable Manager Hajjat Uzeyi Hadijah, who has successfully trimmed the brazen wings of Bobi Wine, who appeared to have complete control over Buganda for much of this term.

How does the UPC resurrection appear to be going in Lango, then?

The political atmosphere in Lango appears to be heating up as Jimmy Akena Obote pursues his expected but minor presidential ambition.

Akena, the de facto (not dejure) UPC President, is seen by many UPC lovers in Lango as their Messiah. The question is, will he be Lango’s or Uganda’s Messiah? This question will undoubtedly be addressed by his disciples in February 2026.

There is no doubt that once President Museveni announces his candidacy for re-election (which I am confident he will do), the presidential race will be all but decided in his favor.

This is based on his firm and decisive leadership in the current term, which has seen him take a strong stance against corruption (many Ministers and technocrats have been fired and prosecuted), poverty alleviation through his PDM, and the most popular stand on the rationalisation of government MDAs.

This rationalisation led him to take a strong stance against once-popular agencies such as UNRA, UCDA, and DDA, among others.

President Museveni, in my opinion, is ready to be sworn in sometime in May 2026, but he must first be confirmed on the 2026 ballots.

Otim Bernard Odoc, the author, hopes to run for the Maruzi North MP seat in 2026.