Scores

8th Africa Risk-Reward Index: ‘Rising inflation, supply-chain constraints have exposed imbalances and economic fragilities’

(Last Updated On: 19 September 2023)

As Africa continues to face various socio-economic challenges, the growth and investment outlook for the continent is anticipated to stabilise as it responds with home-grown solutions.


London I The eighth annual Africa Risk-Reward Index launched on Tuesday, Sept., 19, highlights the continent’s outlook amid growing geopolitical fragmentation.

Specialist risk consultancy, Control Risks and its economics consulting partner, Oxford Economics Africa announced the launch of the eighth edition of their Africa Risk-Reward Index under the theme ‘Opportunity through adversity’.

The Africa Risk-Reward Index is an authoritative guide for policymakers, business leaders, and investors. The 2023 report details developments in the investment landscape in major African markets and delivers a grounded, longer-term outlook of key trends shaping investment in these economies.

The eighth edition is released at a time of geopolitical fragmentation and recent external shocks that will have a sustained impact on the African continent, a statement said, adding that, “African nations are contending with the lingering repercussions of the COVID-19 pandemic, disruptions in global supply chains due to the conflict in Ukraine, and a tightening of global financing conditions.”

According to Oxford Economics Africa, these factors have pushed Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth down from 5.4 per cent in 2021 to 3.5 per cent last year. “Some of this weakness has persisted into this year, but Oxford Economics Africa anticipates a steady, albeit uneven, pick-up in economic activity in the next 12-18 months.”

africa risk
Overall variations.

The report examines three key themes outlined below, summarising Control Risks’ and Oxford Economics Africa’s views on Africa’s trajectory in the year ahead.

The profits and pitfalls in polarisation

The report’s first theme is the impact of global geopolitical fragmentation on Africa, noting that the conflict in Ukraine has upended the geopolitical landscape: Western countries are seeking alliances on their stance against Russia, while Russia is also looking to gain support for its efforts in Ukraine.

Beyond the geopolitical heavyweights, other emerging geopolitical “middle powers” are taking an interest in Africa and its rich resource potential.

As jostling for influence continues, the shockwaves from the conflict have rippled out in the form of macroeconomic uncertainty and higher inflation, deep anxiety over the interconnectedness of global trade and economic systems, and a desire among global geopolitical powers to distinguish friends from foes.

Conscious of their growing geopolitical stock, Africa’s largest economies are seeking to balance their desire for neutrality and their need for external financial support, while at the same time seeking to amplify Africa’s voice in global debates.

Also read: Control Risks, Oxford Economics Africa launch Africa Risk Reward Index

But their attempts at non-alignment are coming under ever greater pressure. Companies will be required to navigate the resulting regulatory complexity arising from global polarisation, including competing regulatory regimes, sanctions and export controls, and growing scrutiny on companies’ supply chains.

African-led security interventions

A collateral effect of the polarisation mentioned above is the upswing in African-led security interventions, which makes the report’s second key theme. Global attention is split as the conflict in Ukraine continues, the US-China competition heats up, and countries in the Global North are increasingly focused on their domestic political concerns.

The perceived inability of external forces to aid in bringing lasting security is leading African governments and institutions to gradually take on a greater role in responding to security crises on the continent.

“These changes in tackling insecurity will present challenges for policymakers and businesses in Africa in the coming years. Businesses will be forced to navigate a more complex operating environment where military force, regional competition, and political and business interests are intertwined,” said Patricia Rodrigues, Associate Director at Control Risks. 

According to Rodrigues, it will require careful monitoring of rapidly evolving security dynamics, and heightened efforts to maintain neutrality and avoid the potential reputational fallout. “Operators working in conflict zones will also potentially have to navigate interactions with foreign or private military forces,” she added.

Financing for the future

The Report also anticipates that increased geopolitical competition will in the longer term translate into new opportunities for African countries, as geopolitical powers seek to extend their influence through financing and investment.

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Risk-reward scores graph.

However, in the short term, African economies will continue to contend with challenging economic environments, and this will deter the more risk-averse investors. Rising inflation and supply-chain constraints have exposed the continent’s imbalances and economic fragilities.

“The Russia-Ukraine conflict and a tightening in global monetary conditions have unnerved international investors. This has raised concern that economic development on the continent might pause or even regress. One area where this has not been the case is financial services, and more specifically, the expansion of access to financial services through innovation,” said Jacques Nel, Head of Africa Macro at Oxford Economics Africa.

While foreign investors have somewhat retreated to the perceived safe havens of advanced economies, home-grown African champions are emerging to fill this funding gap and are steadily consolidating their dominance in Africa’s financial services industry. The continent still has a long way to go to reach financial inclusion to the extent seen in more advanced economies.

However, financial institutions from regional economic powerhouses South Africa, Egypt, Nigeria, Morocco, and Kenya are stepping in to help bridge access and inclusion divides.

While the sector is likely to remain attractive for investors, there are still significant risks, including exposure to governance issues, fraud, cyber threats, vulnerability to terrorism financing, and growing international scrutiny of illicit financial flows.

Methodology

The Africa Risk-Reward Index is defined by the combination of risk and reward scores that integrate economic and political risk analysis by Control Risks and Oxford Economics Africa.

Risk scores from each country originate from the Economic and Political Risk Evaluator (EPRE), while the reward scores incorporate medium-term economic growth forecasts, economic size, economic structure, and demographics.

Organizations’ information

Control Risks (CR) is a specialist risk consultancy that helps create secure, compliant, and resilient organisations. CR believe that taking risks is essential to success, so we provide the insight and intelligence you need to realise opportunities and grow. From the boardroom to the remotest location, we cut through noise and emotion to give you dependable advice when you need it most.

Further, CR has been assisting clients in Africa for the past 40 years and today we have eight offices across five countries on the continent, alongside an unrivalled network of embedded consultants and an on-the-ground network. They work with the largest investors in Africa and the largest African companies, from mining and energy to media and telecommunications.

About Oxford Economics Africa

Oxford Economics Africa, based in South Africa, has specialised in macroeconomic research in Africa since 2003. Insights are provided within the context of comprehensive knowledge of the African continent, its history, and each country’s unique political and economic setting.

In 2015 they became part of the Oxford Economics group, to better combine Oxford Economics’ global base and unparalleled technical expertise in modelling with our Africa-specific skills and insight.

Oxford Economics is a leader in global forecasting and quantitative analysis. Our worldwide client base comprises more than 1,500 international corporations, financial institutions, government organisations, and universities.

Headquartered in Oxford, with offices around the world, Oxford Economics employs 450 people, including 300 economists and analysts. The group’s best-of-class global economic and industry models and analytical tools give us an unmatched ability to forecast external market trends and assess their economic, social, and business impact.

About Control Risks and Oxford Economics 

Control Risks and Oxford Economics have partnered to provide an innovative political and economic risk forecasting service that takes a holistic view of risk in a complex, rapidly changing, globalised world. Control Risks and Oxford Economics combine extensive geopolitical, operational and security expertise with rigorous economic forecasts and models on 200 countries and 100 industries.

Together, the two offer full-spectrum consulting that enables your organisation to navigate the world of political and economic risk. Covering all aspects of the investment journey, including security and integrity risk, our joint consultancy practice can overlay geopolitical and economic scenarios to bring new insights and direction to your business.

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